Dolphins-Ravens Stacks Up as Battle of Surprises

Football Betting Lines

01/02/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A wild, unexpected ride will continue for one team and end for the other on Sunday afternoon, when the Miami Dolphins welcome the also- surprising Baltimore Ravens to Dolphin Stadium for a Wild Card weekend matchup

Few if any pundits had either the Dolphins or Ravens in their projected playoff fields prior to the season.

Miami's turnaround in 2008 ranks as arguably the most impressive in NFL history. The Dolphins were a league-low 1-15 a year ago, a franchise-worst mark that prompted a wholesale housecleaning of the team's front office, coaching staff, and a large chunk of its personnel.

The hiring of new Executive Vice-President for Football Operations Bill Parcells last December began a new chapter in Miami football, as the revered former head coach brought in a new brain trust of general manager Jeff Ireland and head coach Tony Sparano - both of whom had worked with Parcells during his years in Dallas - to try to reverse the team's fortunes.

The rebuilding project took hold much sooner than most around the league had envisioned, as the Dolphins orchestrated a 10-game turnaround that matched the 1999 Indianapolis Colts' for the best in NFL history.

Last week's 24-17 win at the Jets moved Miami to 11-5, giving the team its first division title since 2000 and its first postseason berth since 2001.

The Dolphins are 9-1 since starting the year at 2-4, including a 5-0 road record during that span.

The Ravens' 2008 about-face wasn't quite as impressive in comparison, as Baltimore is just two years removed from being a 13-3 playoff team and retains a sizeable portion of its top personnel from that era, but to say the club was expected to be in this situation would be a major exaggeration.

The Ravens were just 5-11 in 2007, finishing in last place in the AFC North and going 1-9 in their final 10 contests to trigger the firing of former Super Bowl-winning head coach Brian Billick after the season.

Baltimore tabbed longtime, well-respected Eagles assistant John Harbaugh as his next head man, but when quarterback Steve McNair opted to retire and his would-be replacements, Kyle Boller and Troy Smith, were both sidelined during training camp, few gave the team a chance to make an impact on the division race.

The only QB left standing in August was raw rookie third-stringer Joe Flacco, who was told to sink or swim roughly eight months after he had been quarterbacking the University of Delaware in an FCS title loss to Appalachian State.

Flacco swam, showing gradual improvement each week and helping the Ravens navigate a murderous schedule in the process.

The Ravens went 9-2 over their final 11 games to secure the AFC's final Wild Card entry, with their only losses over that span coming against the Giants (30-10) and Steelers (13-9).

On Sunday, Baltimore will be attempting to win its first postseason game since 2001, when it defeated the Dolphins in a Wild Card matchup from South Florida.

SERIES HISTORY

The only meeting between the Dolphins and Ravens in postseason play came in a 2001 AFC First-Round Playoff, won by Baltimore by a 20-3 count on the road. That game ranks as Miami's most recent postseason foray, and as mentioned, the Ravens' most recent postseason victory.

Miami is 5-2 against Baltimore in regular season games all-time, but was a 27-13 home loser when the clubs met back in Week 7. The Dolphins won the previous meeting, a 22-16 overtime thriller when the teams squared off in South Florida in Week 15 of last season. That represented the Dolphins' lone victory of the 2007 campaign. Miami's other wins in the series came at Baltimore's Memorial Stadium in the 1997 season and at home in 2000, 2002, and 2003.

By virtue of the win in the Week 7 meeting between the rookie head coaches, Baltimore's Harbaugh is 1-0 in his career against both Miami and Sparano.

WHEN THE RAVENS HAVE THE BALL

Flacco (2971 passing yards, 14 TD, 12 INT) didn't lead any of the NFL's statistical categories in 2008, but for a rookie to finish a 16-game campaign with solid numbers in both passer rating (80.3) and completion percentage (60.0) is a testament to Flacco's efficiency. The former Blue Hen threw for a career-high 297 yards in last week's win over the Jaguars. Back in the Week 7 meeting with the Dolphins, Flacco was a solid 17-of-23 for 232 yards with a touchdown and no turnovers, and was sacked just twice. Wideouts Derrick Mason (80 receptions, 5 TD) and Mark Clayton (41 receptions, 3 TD) have been at their most reliable during the past month or so, and tight end Todd Heap (35 receptions, 3 TD) has shaken off a slow start to make an impact as well. All of that said, the Ravens' offensive strength lies with a rushing offense that ranks fourth in the NFL (148.5 yards per game) and features the three-headed monster of Pro Bowler Le'Ron McClain (902 rushing yards, 19 receptions, 11 TD), veteran Willis McGahee (671 rushing yards, 7 TD, 24 receptions), and rookie scatback Ray Rice (454 rushing yards, 33 receptions). McGahee - a former Miami Hurricane - had one of his best games of the year when he carried 19 times for 105 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins in Week 7. A young Baltimore offensive line allowed a modest 32 sacks during the regular season.

The Dolphins don't have a vast number of big-name defenders outside of Pro Bowl outside linebacker Joey Porter (47 tackles, 17.5 sacks), but the nondescript defensive group ranks 10th in NFL rushing defense (101.2 yards per game), eighth in sacks (40), and has kept the team afloat for much of the season. Up front, the run-stopping effort begins with nose tackle Jason Ferguson (22 tackles) and veteran end Vonnie Holliday (46 tackles, 3.5 sacks), with inside linebackers Channing Crowder (113 tackles) and Akin Ayodele (75 tackles, 2 INT) making the stops behind them. The work of the pass rush, which features the re-born Porter and fellow outside linebacker Matt Roth (53 tackles, 5 sacks), has helped to cover up some of the weaknesses of a secondary that ranks just 25th in the NFL against the pass (227.8 yards per game). Porter had both Dolphins sacks of Flacco in Week 7. Andre' Goodman (39 tackles, 5 INT) and Will Allen (50 tackles, 3 INT, 1 sack) will lock up with Mason and Clayton on Sunday, with safeties Yeremiah Bell (120 tackles, 1 sack) and Renaldo Hill (77 tackles, 3 INT) lending support over the top. Goodman had a big day against Brett Favre and the Jets last Sunday, coming up with two picks and a forced fumble in the important win.

WHEN THE DOLPHINS HAVE THE BALL

A major component in the Dolphins' eye-opening season was the way quarterback Chad Pennington (3653 passing yards, 19 TD, 7 INT) and the attack protected the football. The Dolphins turned the ball over an NFL-low-tying 13 times during the regular campaign, leading the NFL in turnover margin (+17) in the process. Pennington, the league's Comeback Player of the Year for a second time, posted an outstanding 97.4 passer rating during the regular season despite a lack of big-name receivers on the club. Davone Bess (54 receptions, 1 TD) and Ted Ginn, Jr. (56 receptions, 2 TD) are the club's top deep threats, while tight ends Anthony Fasano (34 receptions, 7 TD) and David Martin (31 receptions, 3 TD) have been staples of the offense as well. Pennington threw for 295 yards on 24-of-35 passing against Baltimore in Week 7, but was able to cash in just one touchdown drive and threw a key pick-six to Ravens outside linebacker Terrell Suggs in the second quarter of that loss. Bess scored the Fins' only touchdown against the Ravens in Week 7. Miami's three-pronged rushing attack of Ronnie Brown (916 rushing yards, 10 TD, 33 receptions), Ricky Williams (659 rushing yards, 29 receptions, 5 TD), and Patrick Cobbs (88 rushing yards, 19 receptions, 3 TD) combined for just 46 yards on 18 carries (2.6 per rush) in that game, but the Fins were a healthy 11th in NFL rushing offense during the regular season (118.6 yards per game).

Pennington and company will have a tall order on Sunday, as they try to gain some traction against a Ravens defense that is No. 3 against the run (83.4 yards per game) and No. 2 against the pass (179.7 yards per game), while simultaneously avoiding turning the ball over against a unit that leads the NFL in interceptions (26) and takeaways (34). The quarterback will have to be particularly careful to avoid NFL interceptions leader and All-Pro safety Ed Reed (41 tackles, 9 INT, 1 sack), who has an amazing four multi- interception games in his past six appearances. Cornerbacks Samari Rolle (23 tackles, 3 INT) and Fabian Washington (31 tackles, 1 INT) will work against Bess and Ginn, with Reed and safety Jim Leonhard helping out over the top. Suggs (68 tackles, 8 sacks, 2 INT) is the top pass rusher for a team that saw 13 different players contribute to its total of 34 sacks. When the Dolphins try to run it, tackles Haloti Ngata (55 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) and Justin Bannan (45 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) will be working at the point of attack, with Pro Bowler Ray Lewis (117 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 3 INT) and fellow inside linebacker Bart Scott (82 tackles, 1.5 sacks) working behind them. Defensive leaders Reed and Lewis are among the ex-Miami Hurricanes who will be returning home for this weekend's tilt.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Forty-year-old kicker Matt Stover had another solid year for the Ravens in 2008, making good on 27-of-33 field goal attempts, including 22-of-23 from inside 40 yards. For long-range kicks, Baltimore could use Steven Hauschka (1-2 FG), who appeared in eight games as the team's kickoff specialist but only managed four touchbacks. Punter Sam Koch (45.0 avg.) was a reliable special teams presence for the Ravens all season. Unusual for Baltimore, given that Harbaugh was a long-time special teams coach, is the team's weakness on returns and in kick coverage. Primary return man Yamon Figurs (21.0 kickoff return avg., 6.0 punt return avg.) had a poor season, and Leonhard (20.4 kickoff return avg., 11.6 punt return avg.) has been handling a bulk of the club's punt returns of late. The Ravens also gave up two kickoff returns for touchdowns on the season, though thanks in large part to Koch, surrendered just 6.4 yards per punt return.

He's not yet a household name, but Miami rookie kicker Dan Carpenter (21-25 FG) was generally reliable on both placements and kickoffs this season. The University of Montana product was a perfect 11-of-11 inside of 40 yards. Punter Brandon Fields (43.9 avg.) doesn't have the NFL's biggest leg but is a capable directional kicker. Ginn (20.5 punt return avg., 7.7 kickoff return avg.) and Bess (22.2 kickoff return avg., 11.0 punt return avg.) are generally the men on returns, though it is Cobbs (23.6 kickoff return avg.) that broke the team's biggest return of the year, a 60-yard kickoff return against the Chiefs in Week 16. The special teams coverage units have had some trouble, particularly against the punt where the Fins are giving up 13.1 yards per return and have been scored on twice.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

There is an easy frame of reference to point to in analyzing this matchup, since Baltimore went to Miami and earned a fairly easy 27-13 victory in Week 7. The Dolphins have improved since then, but so have the Ravens, who are moving the ball offensively and also making their requisite big plays on defense. A major reason for Miami's resurgence has been their affinity for avoiding turnovers, but Pennington is going to have a difficult time avoiding miscues against a Baltimore team that leads the league in picks. In addition, Pennington won't get quite enough help from the running game against a Ravens front seven that doesn't give up much ground. On the other side of the ball, Flacco has stood up to nearly every challenge he's faced this year, and the unflappable youngster will impress the masses once more by putting up a gutty display in his first career postseason foray.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Ravens 23, Dolphins 13