Duval boots 7 FGs as Als rout Hamilton
Football Betting Lines
07/23/2010 - Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Montreal kicker Damon Duval tied a career-high with seven field goals as he helped lead the Alouettes to a commanding 37-14 win over the Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Percival Molson Stadium.
Duval finished the night with 22 points as Montreal (3-1) logged its third straight win after losing the season opener to Saskatchewan in overtime, 54-51.
Montreal quarterback Anthony Calvillo also had a strong outing as he converted 28-of-38 passing for 309 yards and a pair of touchdowns, getting his team into the end zone for the first time in six quarters when he struck in the fourth period.
Kevin Glenn, who was named the CFL Offensive Player of the Week on Tuesday after completing 29-of-36 passes for 336 yards with three touchdowns in a 28-7 decision over Winnipeg, hit on 16-of-32 for 201 yards for the Tiger-Cats (1-3) before being pulled in favor of Quinton Porter late in the contest.
Duval started off the night's scoring for the Alouettes with a pair of field goals in the first half, converting tries of 24 and 47 yards to provide the home team with a 6-0 advantage.
Hamilton and Sandro DeAngelis finally responded when the kicker knocked through a 19-yard effort, capping a 16-play, 64-yard drive.
In the second period Duval struck again for the Als, this time on a 27-yard effort, making the score 9-6.
DeAngelis took his turn later in the frame, booting a 27-yard field goal, but shortly after Duval added a 61-yard single to make the score 10-6 at the break.
Montreal struck first in the second half as well when Duval made good on a 45- yard field goal try.
On the first play from scrimmage on the ensuing Hamilton possession, John Bowman stripped Glenn of the ball and the Als recovered, putting them in prime position for a major. Unfortunately, yet another Montreal drive stalled prematurely and Duval was called upon to convert a 22-yard attempt, making the score 16-6.
"We had to show everyone that we can play football up front," Bowman said after the game. "We knew we had to give our offense a chance. We had a rough first half, but we gave them enough to change in the second...especially when it was 13-6 with what was my forced fumble on Kevin Glenn."
A blocked punt and subsequent recovery by Montreal's Michael Giffin once more gave the Als the ball deep in Hamilton territory, but once again Duval was brought in to convert a 21-yard field goal.
"I hate to see a blocked punt at a crucial time in the game," Hamilton head coach Marcel Bellefeuille lamented. "The forced fumble by John Bowman was a big play...for whatever reason the play broke down."
Finally Calvillo and the Montreal offense broke through in the fourth quarter when the signal-caller threw off his back foot and found Kerry Watkins with a 32-yard score. A two-point conversion toss to S.J. Green made the score 27-6 with under 13 minutes to play in the contest.
Another stalled drive by Montreal brought out Duval who knocked through a 45- yard field goal to push the score to 30-6.
Hamilton turned to Porter to supply some energy and he responded by finding Arland Bruce III with a 16-yard TD strike, with a pass to Maurice Mann on the two-point conversion cutting the deficit to 30-14 with under six minutes remaining.
Following the three-minute warning, Avon Cobourne weaved his way on a 16-yard run down to the one-yard line for the Als, but a penalty on the next snap moved the ball back to the six-yard line. From there, Calvillo fired over the middle into the end zone for Kerry Carter to make the score 37-14.
Montreal sealed the decision when Shea Emry intercepted a Porter pass with 1:36 remaining and the Als ran out the clock with reserve QB Chris Leak under center.
"It comes down to making plays and we just didn't make enough of them," Glenn said of his efforts. "The Als didn't do anything different...we had chances to make big plays but we didn't make them."
Game Notes
The TD for Watkins was the first for the Als in 115:39, dating back to the fourth quarter of the Edmonton matchup on July 11...Duval entered the night having made a total of seven field goals through the first three games of the season...Montreal receiver Ben Cahoon, who had two catches for 37 yards, now has 967 catches for his career, ranking him third all-time in the CFL behind Terry Vaughn (1,006 receptions) and Darren Flutie (972)...Montreal was a perfect 9-0 at home last season, the first time since 1955 that the club posted an unblemished record...Montreal has now won five straight over the Ticats and 13 of the last 14 encounters...Hamilton has not won in Montreal since 2002...The last defeat for the Alouettes overall at home was October 26, 2008 when the squad bowed to Winnipeg, 24-23.
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How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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