Gaming: C-USA a one-team league in non-conference play

NCAA Football Betting Lines

07/27/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Take away Houston's straight-up and against-the-spread non-conference records in 2009, and Conference USA was a meat market for its opposition. The Cougars were 3-1 both SU and ATS outside the conference, including an undefeated 3-0 mark against Bowl Championship Series schools. The rest of the league finished 9-32 SU and 16-24-1 ATS, while going 1-23 SU and 5-18-1 ATS versus the top six conferences.

Unfortunately for Conference USA, its poor records have not been a one-year trend. Back in '08, the league went 15-33 SU and 21-27 ATS in non-conference play and 2-23 SU and 9-16 ATS against BCS squads. In '07, the numbers were similar: 12-34 SU and 20-26 ATS, with 2-25 SU and 10-17 marks versus automatic qualifying clubs.

There is ample evidence that this meager run will continue, as the league moves forward without nine of its top 12 rushers from a season ago, as well as four of its top six receivers. In addition, more than half of the conference's sack artists and eight of the top 10 tackles for loss leaders also have departed.

Time now to take a team-by-team look at the league with predicted SU overall and conference records for those wagering on over/unders for total victories.

EAST

6) MEMPHIS - The Tigers were a dismal 2-9 ATS last season. They are 2-6 ATS as road underdogs the last two years and 11-26 ATS off a SU win over the last seven seasons.

Offense - The quarterback position is unsettled heading into the fall, which isn't a good sign for a team that won just one Football Bowl Subdivision contest last year. Add in the fact running back Curtis Steele and the two all- time leading receivers in Tiger history have all moved on and one gets the feeling it will be a down year for the offense in 2010.

Defense - Memphis finished 117th nationally against the pass last season but the run defense picked up as the year moved along, allowing 3.5 yards per carry in the final four games. The Tigers had allowed 4.8 ypc over the first eight.

Prediction - Bet against Memphis early in the year, regardless of how many points their opponents are giving. (1-11, 1-7)

5) MARSHALL - The Thundering Herd went 7-5 ATS last year and 9-2 to the under in their last 11. They have gone 4-4 ATS in league play each of the last four years.

Offense - Question marks abound on this side of the ball as former Clemson quarterback Willy Korn might need time to learn the system. Moreover, the offensive line has little depth so a major injury could stall a ground attack without Darius Marshall.

Defense - Losing DeQuan Bembry, the team's top cover corner, puts a big hole in the secondary, especially since Marshall was number one in league play last year holding opposing quarterbacks to a 56% completion rate. The defensive line also must respond with the loss of its top two tackle for loss leaders.

Prediction - The Herd could be dangerous later in the year, but it's a safe bet to play against them in September and October. (5-7, 3-5)

4) EAST CAROLINA - The Pirates finished 7-5-1 ATS last year. They are 5-8-1 ATS in non-conference play over the last three seasons.

Offense - Dominique Davis gets the call at quarterback but he was far from impressive in three starts with Boston College back in '08. His accuracy must improve, especially since the East Carolina offense will have a completely different look with former Texas Tech wide receivers coach Lincoln Riley taking over as the new offensive coordinator.

Defense - The Pirates return just two starters from a unit that led the league in turnovers gained and red zone defense. They lose seven of their top eight tacklers but they do have what many C-USA teams lack and that's the return of both starting cornerbacks.

Prediction - East Carolina will be an over paradise for those playing the totals early in the season. (4-8, 3-5)

3) SOUTHERN MISS - The Golden Eagles ended last year at 6-6 ATS. They are 9-3 ATS as road underdogs over the last three years.

Offense - This will be the Golden Eagles' least experienced offense in quite some time. Gone are four of the top five reception leaders, four offensive line starters, and running back Damion Fletcher, the school's all-time leading rusher.

Defense - Unlike the offense, the defense returns nine starters, including the entire front seven. However, opposing league quarterbacks completed 64% of their tosses against the Golden Eagles last year and those numbers might not improve in 2010.

Prediction - There's enough talent remaining to keep them in line for postseason play but they will fall below the .500 ATS mark. (5-7, 4-4)

2) UAB - The Blazers were 5-7 ATS in 2009. They are 4-9 ATS as road underdogs the last two years.

Offense - Last year's offense was dominated by Joe Webb, as the quarterback rushed for over 1,000 yards (11 touchdowns) and passed for over 2,000 yards (21 touchdowns). Another dual-threat quarterback (David Isabelle) takes over, but he must develop quickly as a passer or opposing defenses will stuff eight in the box all season long.

Defense - UAB ranked 114th nationally in total defense last year and dead last versus the pass. Surprisingly, the Blazers finished first in league play, holding opponents to a 35% conversion rate on third downs. This unit has the makings of a much-improved defense with the return of 12 of the top 13 tacklers.

Prediction - With the loss of Webb, not many folks will expect UAB to maintain its recent progression. However, don't be swayed by popular opinion. (6-6, 5-3)

1) UCF - The Knights were a solid 9-3 ATS last year. They are also 9-3 ATS as road underdogs over the last three years.

Offense - This season could be a trying one for the offense without quarterback Brett Hodges, who took over last year for the ineffective Rob Calabrese. Unfortunately, Hodges' time is up at UCF so Calabrese (4-7 as a starter) must assume control. In addition, 1,000-yard rusher Brynn Harvey is lost for possibly the first half of the season with an injured knee.

Defense - It will be tough to duplicate last year's rush defense (fourth nationally), especially with the loss of both starting defensive tackles. Still, six of the top seven tacklers come back, along with return of linebacker Chance Henderson, who missed all of last season with an injured knee.

Prediction - The team with the best defense has won the East the last two years so look for the Knights to take the crown in 2010. Play the under in the majority of their games. (8-4, 6-2)

WEST

6) TULANE - The Green Wave not only went 3-9 ATS last season, but the team is 8-24 in conference play over the last four years.

Offense - Tulane finished 115th nationally in scoring averaging just 16 ppg, and that was with a 1,000-yard rusher and receiver. Both moved on so this year's offense could wind up dead last in the country.

Defense - Even though Tulane ranked next-to-last in conference play allowing 37 ppg, the club managed to finish behind only five of the other 11 squads in yards allowed. Nonetheless, only four starters return so don't expect the Green Wave to turn things around in 2010.

Prediction - Tulane hasn't finished with an above .500 ATS record since '03. It should be safe to predict another poor finish once again. (1-11, 0-8)

5) UTEP - The Miners were 5-7 ATS last season. They are just 4-15 ATS as favorites over the last four years.

Offense - Quarterback Trevor Vittatoe returns for his senior season after his least productive campaign, completing just 55% of his throws with a 17-13 touchdown/interception ratio. The offense was bailed out by Donald Buckram, who broke the school's all-time rushing record with 1,594 yards. Both return leading a veteran group that will put up points in bunches.

Defense - The Miners return fewer than 45% of their lettermen on this side of the ball, not a positive sign when having to take on the likes of Houston, Tulsa and SMU. The defense will wind up costing them a shot at their first bowl bid since '05.

Prediction - UTEP was 7-3 to the over in its final 10 games last year. Expect more of the same in what will be Mike Price's final year as coach. (6-6, 3-5)

4) RICE - The Owls were 4-7-1 ATS last year but covered three of their final four games. They are 3-9 ATS in non-conference play over the last three years.

Offense - Scoring was down for Rice last season as the team averaged 18 ppg after hitting at a 41 ppg clip in '08. The Owls had one of the youngest starting lineups in the nation so another year of experience will surely help. The offensive line, which returns all five starters, should boost the production of former Michigan running back Sam McGuffie.

Defense - There is only one place to go after finishing last year 120th nationally in scoring defense. Nine starters return so there is a ray of hope. In addition, the last two years the Owls allowed over 40 ppg, they knocked off at least a touchdown the following season.

Prediction - As was the case in '08, when they went 9-4 ATS, the Owls will once again be overlooked by the oddsmakers, particularly in conference play. (5-7, 4-4)

3) TULSA - The Golden Hurricane covered just one of its final six games last year for a 4-6-1 ATS total. The team is 0-4 ATS as an away underdog over the last three years.

Offense - Tulsa's offense tumbled by an average of 18 ppg last year because the makeshift offensive line couldn't open holes for the running backs. With a year of experience under its belt, look for the line to help the offense increase its points per game average.

Defense - Last season's defense was very similar to the '08 version in almost every statistical category. However, the team loses seven of the top 12 tacklers. Head coach Todd Graham has brought in some junior college talent to absorb the blow.

Prediction - The Golden Hurricane might be a tad underrated after last year's debacle, so now is a good time to get back on the bandwagon. (9-3, 6-2)

2) SMU - The Mustangs went 7-5 ATS last year, but dropping three of their final five games. They are 0-7 ATS as home favorites over the last three years.

Offense - The offense picked up its play as soon as Kyle Padron took over at quarterback and SMU wound up winning five of its final six games. The offensive line returns players with 88 career starts as opposed to just 48 the year before. Look for the Mustangs to average more than 30 ppg for the first time since the early 1980s.

Defense - More impressive than what Padron did for the offense was how the defense competed on a week-to-week basis. Two years ago, the "D" finished dead last in league play allowing 9.2 yards per pass. Last season, the club moved all the way up to the fourth spot giving up only 7.1. The Mustangs will show the rest of the division that they possess the best defense in the West.

Prediction - SMU will be overhyped in 2010, and considering how poorly the team fared as a home favorite of late, it would be wise to go the other way in the six games played at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. (8-4, 6-2)

1) HOUSTON - The Cougars went 8-5 ATS in '09 while going 6-1 to the over in their final seven games. They are 6-1 ATS as home favorites, but 1-8 ATS as road favorites over the last two years.

Offense - Quarterback Case Keenum has a great chance to finish number one nationally in total offense for the third straight season. However, in order to take the Cougars to the next level, he must improve against "real" competition, as 13 of last year's 15 interceptions came in the six non-conference games.

Defense - Houston finished last in league play versus the run last season, and even though the defense ranked second against the pass, it was eighth in yards allowed per attempt. On the other hand, the Cougars come into 2010 with seven of their top 12 tacklers after returning only four in '09.

Prediction - The overs should continue against the likes of UTEP, Rice and Tulsa (6-0 combined the last two years), but play the under versus Tulane (6-0 last six years). (10-2, 7-1)